07

Arthur Eckart's Articles in Mutual Funds

  • Conflicting Indicators Suggest Volatility
    Intermediate-term stock market prediction.
  • Recent NYMO Extreme Levels
    Short-term SPX prediction
  • SPX: Compressing Between Resistance & Support
    Stock market forecast: On Wednesday, SPX opened sharply higher on the better than expected CPI report, although the core rate was in-line. SPX reached about 1,373 before pulling-back sharply. The strong open may have been a "blow-off top," and a bearish head & shoulders (on 15-minute chart) may have been created with the right shoulder at roughly
  • Markets: Rotation and Relationships
    Relationship between stock, bond, and commodity markets.
  • SPX: Pullback and Consolidation
    Short-term S&P 500 forecast.
  • SPX: Consolidation and Early-September Top?
    Short-term SPX prediction.
  • SPX: Maintaining the Cyclical Bull Market?
    The first chart is an SPX daily chart that shows bullish intermediate-term indicators. The CPC 50-day MA (above price chart) fell from 1.08 Monday to 1.05 Friday, while the NYMO 50-day MA (below price chart) continues the uptrend (other indicators not shown also show similar bullish patterns).
  • Bullish Intermediate-Term Indicators
    The price chart below shows daily SPX (green line and right scale), daily NYSE Summation Index (NYSI; red line and left scale), and the NYSE Oscillator (NYMO) 50-day MA (blue line).
  • Potential SPX Overshoot
    The most recent article "Lower Volume Trading Range" showed SPX held the cyclical bull market low, intermediate-term technical indicators may have bottomed, and an SPX 1,246 to 1,290 range may take place in July. However, the possibility of a rise above 1,290 should be taken into account.
  • SPX: Lower Volume Trading Range
    The monthly chart below shows SPX managed to close the month above the middle Bollinger Band, maintained the bullish MACD, and held Money Flow steady. So, the cyclical bull market remains intact.
  • SPX & USD Relationship
    The FOMC has raised the Fed Funds Rate 25 basis points (or 1/4%) at every meeting, since mid-2004, from an accommodative 1% to a possibly neutral 5%.
  • SPX: Summer Trading Range
    Previously, I've noted similarities between the recent SPX and the 1994 SPX, which suggested a bottom at 1,197, and the April 2005 SPX, which suggested a bottom at 1,228. Last week, SPX fell to 1,219 and rallied strongly to close at 1,252 Friday. Currently, intermediate-term technical indicators suggest SPX may have reached or is close to an intermediate-term bottom and may begin a rally soon.
  • Cyclical Bull Market Support Line
    The first chart shows the daily SPX (black line and right scale) and the NYSE Oscillator (NYMO) 50-day MA (blue line and left scale). Previous patterns indicate when the NYMO 50-day MA falls below negative 20, then a bottom will be in place and SPX will be in position for a sustainable rally.
  • Comparisons of Two Cyclical Bull Markets
    There are two Market Forecasts this week (also see "Cyclical Bull Market Support Line"). The first chart below is an SPX monthly chart from January 1990 to November 1994 and the second chart is an SPX monthly chart from January 2002 to the present time (June 2006).
  • SPX: Retest of Major Support?
    The first chart shows SPX and the NYSE Oscillator (NYMO) 50-day MA. Previous patterns indicate when the NYMO 50-day MA falls below negative 20, then SPX will begin an uptrend.

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